A Spring Bike Ride

The weather finally turned nice this weekend and I went for the first bike ride of the season through the neighborhood.  I was struck by how few homes were on the market.  I noticed four properties that have had "for sale" signs in front of them since last summer, indicating they are over-priced, but only a handful of newer listings, and most of those already had "sold" signs on them.  On a typical spring day, I should have gone past over a dozen homes for sale; this past Sunday, only about five or six.

I also noticed two small subdivisions, each with about 15 homes, one priced in the $600's and the other in the $700's, that appeared to very little unsold inventory. I looked up one of the houses on a real estate website: 3,400 square feet, 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths.  Price: $689,000.  The subdivision had a nice look and feel, and, as they say in real estate, was just minutes from the freeway. Before the housing crisis, this home would have been close to $1 million, given the property features and location.

I am a housing bull, but not for every type of property.  A new home has a competitive advantage over a previously-owned resale.  Brand-new carpets, brand-new roof, brand-new appliances, up-to-date design, 100% modern wiring and plumbing, 0% wear and tear, no previous owner, no bank or other complications associated with closing, etc. etc.

This is the primary reason I am bullish on housing stocks.  Home builders, right now coming out of a depressed market, have the advantage.  I think within two years there will be a shortage of new inventory in most major markets, and then existing homes may gain the upper hand.